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Poll Says Gubernatorial Race Is Dead Heat

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A new poll indicates that Virginia’s gubernatorial race is a virtual tie.

The latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll shows a tightening in the race, with Democrat Terry McAuliffe slightly leading Republican Glenn Youngkin 49 percent to 48 percent. One percent of voters plan to vote for someone else, and 2 percent are still undecided.

In September, an Emerson/Nexstar poll showed McAuliffe with a four-point lead over Youngkin, 49 percent to 45 percent.

The newest survey, conducted Oct. 1-3, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

McAuliffe leads with women 51 percent to 45 percent, while Youngkin leads with men 50 percent to 46 percent. McAuliffe also leads among Black voters, 72 percent to 25 percent, while Youngkin leads among White voters 53 percent to 45 percent and Hispanic voters 55 percent to 45 percent.

McAuliffe leads Youngkin in the Northern region of the state 64 percent to 36 percent and in the Southeast region 63 percent to 31 percent. Youngkin leads in the Western region 61 percent to 36 percent. The Western region includes the 6th and 9th Congressional Districts. Bath County is in the 6th District. Alleghany County and Covington are in the 9th District. Youngkinalso leads the East Coast region 58 percent to 36 percent.

Those who live in the urban areas of the state are leaning towards McAuliffe 59 percent to 36 percent, while rural areas are breaking towards Youngkin 57 percent to 42 percent. The suburbs are slightly leaning towards Youngkin 49 percent to 48 percent.

While the race is tight, 55 percent of Virginia voters expect the former governor, McAuliffe to win this November, compared to 44 percent of voters who expect Youngkin to win.

In the race for Attorney General, incumbent Democrat Mark Herring leads Republican Jason Miyares 46 percent to 44 percent. One percent of voters plan to vote for someone else, and 10 percent are undecided. Among those undecided, 65 percent are leaning towards Miyares, and 35 percent are leaning towards Herring.

President Joe Biden’s approval is underwater in the state he won by 10 points in 2020, as he sits at 45 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval, with 8 percent neutral. When respondents were asked if Biden’s endorsement of McAuliffe made them more or less likely to support his candidacy, 22 percent said more likely, 39 percent said less likely, and 38 percent said it had no difference.

The election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 2, but early voting has already begun.

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