Three recent polls show a down-to-the-wire finish in the Virginia governor’s race.
The polls show Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin in a statistical tie with election day fast approaching on Nov. 2.
Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race finds Youngkin and McAuliffe deadlocked at 48 percent. The numbers are also reflected in a poll released by Cygnal, a national polling firm that claims is ranked as the most accurate. Cygnal is known as a Republican polling firm. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll says McAuliffe and Youngkin are tied at 45 percent, wit 5 percent of voters undecided.
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the race is simply a “dead heat,” and will boil down to which party can get out its voters.
“It’s down to turnout,” Paleologos said.
Cygnal says Youngkin has closed ranks with McAuliffe in recent weeks by using education as a primary issue.
“Independent voters and parents of K-12 students are stampeding to support Republicans Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Sears, Jason Miyares and GOP state house candidates,” remarked pollster Brent Buchanan, CEO of Cygnal. “In an interesting twist of political fate, voters under the age of 55 are strongly for Republicans.”
Emerson/Nexstar says that since its last poll in early October, McAuliffe has lost 1 point of support, while the undecided number of voters has gone up 1 point, and Youngkin’s support has stayed the same.
Voters are locked in with their choices, with 92 percent saying they will definitely vote for their planned candidate, and 8 percent saying they could change their mind before election day, according to Emerson/Nexstar.
The Emerson/Nexstar poll says that regardless of who voters plan to vote for, a majority (55 percent) of voters expect McAuliffe to win, while 43 percent expect Youngkin to win.
In the race for Attorney General, Emerson/Nextar says incumbent Democrat Mark Herring holds a slight lead over Republican Jason Miyares, 47 percent to 44 percent, with 2 percent saying they will vote for someone else and 7 percent being undecided. When the undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are leaning towards, the race tightens to 1 point, with Herring at 50 percent and Miyares at 49 percent.
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the Crystal Ball, a political analysis newsletter at the University of Virginia, says Virginia has a history of breaking against the White House party in gubernatorial elections.
“The Virginia governorship is often won by the party that does not hold the White House, and the non-presidential party has consistently performed better in this race than it did in Virginia in the previous year’s presidential election,” Kondik said.
Kondik says polling also generally indicates that Youngkin’s voters have an enthusiasm edge, which leaves open the possibility of Republicans swamping Democrats on Election Day, and giving Youngkin the ability to overcome whatever edge Democrats build in the early vote.
Cygnal says President Joe Biden is a millstone around the neck of Democratic candidates. For example, he won Virginia female voters in 2020 by 23 points but the generic Republican for General Assembly in 2021 is only losing female voters by 3 points and McAuliffe only leads them by 5 points. Youngkin has a 4 point higher “very favorable” rating while McAuliffe has a 4 point higher “very unfavorable” rating.
“It’s all been turned upside down in Virginia politics this year. Seventy-one percent of Independents view McAuliffe negatively, and more Democrats than Republicans are defecting to support the candidate of the other party,” Buchanan said.
In the Emerson/Nextar poll, respondents were asked what the most important issue facing Virginia is, voters were split between education (21 percent), jobs (15 percent), COVID-19 (14 percent), and taxes (10 percent). Other issues were gun control (6 percent), immigration (6 percent), and the environment (6 percent). Eleven percent of voters said something else.
A plurality (23 percent) of McAuliffe voters say COVID-19 is the most important issue facing Virginia, while a plurality (34 percent) of Youngkin voters say education is the most important issue.
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