COVID-19 cases in the Roanoke City and Alleghany Health Districts appear to be plateauing, meaning they are holding at a more steady level.
There were 932 new cases in the health districts over the past week, according to data released Tuesday by the regional office in Roanoke. That number is 198 less than the number of new cases reported in the previous week.
The regional numbers reflect a statewide trend, according to the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute and the Virginia Department of Health. Health officials say the number of COVID-19 cases in Virginia has entered a sustained period of decline, with 20 out of the state’s 35 health districts reporting declining positive case numbers.
Average new daily cases reported in Virginia continue to decline, falling to a seven-day average of 2,748 on Monday after peaking at 3,689 cases on Sept. 14. The seven-day average on Monday was the lowest level since Aug. 25, according to the VDH.
Under the current course, researchers project positive COVID-19 cases have already peaked. However, scenarios show there is still potential for a large holiday surge later this year, similar to the one experienced last year.
“The Delta wave has caused only about 40 percent of the cases experienced during last winter’s surge — at least so far,” the researchers said. “Right now, the Delta wave appears to have peaked. However, the sharpest growth last year occurred over the holidays, beginning around Thanksgiving.”
The looming question is whether Virginia will experience a repeat of last winter’s surge with the Delta variant.
“This largely depends on whether Virginians choose to get vaccinated, including boosters when eligible, and practice other prevention measures,” the UVA and VDH researchers said.
In the Roanoke City and Alleghany Districts, health officials say an overwhelming majority of new COVID cases and hospitalizations involve persons who are not fully vaccinated. Approximately 50 percent of the new cases over the past week involved adults under the age of 35 — 25 percent involved children.
A total of 98 people in the two health districts were hospitalized on Monday — 62 were new admissions.
As of Monday, 60.5 percent of Virginia’s population was fully vaccinated, while 72 percent of people 18 and older are fully vaccinated, according to the VDH.
The VDH database said 55.5 percent of Alleghany County’s adult population is fully vaccinated. Those numbers in Bath County and Covington are 54.9 percent and 51.8 percent respectively.
Last week, the number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States surpassed the number of deaths caused by the 1918 influenza pandemic, making the current pandemic the deadliest infectious disease in U.S. history.
Like COVID-19, the 1918 flu was a respiratory disease, and many of the same measures that prevent flu prevent COVID-19.
However, the average age of death from the 1918 flu was 28, while COVID-19 deaths have been concentrated among seniors so far, although a growing number of children have died from the disease.
The flu tends to spread by contact with droplets, while the evidence suggests aerosol transmission is important with COVID-19.
“COVID-19 is occurring in a far different environment as well. In 1918, there was no vaccine or treatment available for the flu,” the UVA and VDH researchers said. “In 2021, modern hospitals equipped with ICU units and ventilators have saved many lives, and a COVID-19 vaccine that drastically reduces the risk of infection, severe disease, and death is widely available.”
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