The Shadow
LOW MOOR — The Alleghany County Board of Supervisors expects population stagnation to be a leading factor in increasingly difficult budget situations going into the future.
Tuesday, supervisors were given a glimpse of historical trends in an annual audit report.
The report, presented by the accounting firm of Robinson Farmer Cox in Blacksburg, said revenues in the county grew at an annualized rate of 0.96 percent from 2010-2019. Expenditures grew at a rate of 1.41 percent annually.
“We are seeing this in a lot of places. A lot of the rural areas are seeing stagnation in revenues,” said Corbin Stone, managing director of Robinson Farmer Cox.
“You are seeing a slow decline in your population, and that is your tax base,” Stone said.
Alleghany County and other rural communities are facing population loss as people move to urban areas.
A committee exploring a potential merger of Alleghany County and Covington schools has been given data that project the population decline will continue through 2040.
In 2010, Alleghany County had a population of 16,250. That figure is based on the 2010 Census. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated that the county’s population dropped to 14,910 in 2018.
“It’s going to be tough in the next five to six years, because we don’t have any increase in the base we tax,” said Steve Bennett, supervisor vice chairman.
Property values rose by only 0.06 percent in a recent reassessment conducted by the county.
“That’s the lowest I have ever seen in all of the years I have served in local government,” Bennett said. “You’ve got to have growth.”
Stone said the county has been able to balance its budgets by keeping expenditures down.
He said supervisors have maintained a recommended undesignated fund balance of at least 10 percent.
In 2019, the undesignated fund balance stood at $8.3 million, which was above the recommended 10 percent level of $6 million.
“But when you look back, that has been slowly coming down,” Stone said.
Supervisors have dipped into the fund balance in recent years to help balance operating budgets and hold taxes down.
County Administrator Jon Lanford reminded supervisors that the county is continuing to emphasize a regional approach to economic development.
The county and city are in discussions over the possibility of constructing a shell building to attract a business or industry to the region.
Lanford said preliminary discussions have been held with The Alleghany Foundation on funding for the shell building.
That plan will evolve as the Alleghany Highlands Economic Development Corp. evaluates possible sites for the shell building, Lanford said.
And, the county will be working closely with the U.S. Census Bureau to ensure that an accurate population count is tallied in the 2020 Census, which gets under way April 1.
Daryn Warner, a census partnership specialist, said an accurate population count is critical to federal funds that flow into the county.
“Typically, 16 to 20 percent of households in Alleghany County will not respond,” Warner said.
The highest level of non-responses are expected to occur in Clifton Forge. A projected 22 percent of households in the town are not expected to respond to the census.
Warner said that for each person not counted by the census, Alleghany County could lose up to $200,000 a year in federal funding.
“Health, schools and roads are all influenced by the criteria for funding,” he said.
Supervisors were presented with an overview of an economic impact study on the Historic Masonic Theatre in Clifton Forge.
The study showed that in 2018, the theatre had an impact of $700,000 on the Alleghany Highlands economy.
“We are a serious economic engine and we are going to get better,”said Jeffrey Stern, outgoing executive director of the theatre.
In other business Tuesday, supervisors:
— Declined to consider amendments to the county zoning ordinance that would allow certain hens and pigs in residential areas.
— Approved the issuance of a $1.3 million bond to fund improvements to the wastewater treatment system in Rosedale.
A portion of the bond proceeds will be retired by a $779,606 grant, leaving $779,606 in principal.
Supervisors approved the awarding of a contract to Hammond-Mitchell of Covington to carry out work on the Rosedale project.
— Appointed Dickie Engleman (Sharon District) and Kevin Cole (Falling Spring District) to the Planning Commission.
— Appointed Greg Vess (Sharon District) and Jewell Moore (Covington District) to the Water and Sewer Commission.
— Appointed Eston Burge to the Social Services Board to fill the unexpired term of Kenny Lane, who resigned.
