WEST LONG BEACH, N.J. — With two weeks to go before Election Day, Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are locked in a close battle for governor of Virginia.
The last Monmouth University Poll before the election marks a gain for the GOP candidate from prior polls. Youngkin’s improved position comes from a widening partisan gap in voter engagement and a shift in voters’ issue priorities, particularly around schools and the pandemic.
Youngkin (46 percent) and McAuliffe (46 percent hold identical levels of support among all registered voters. This marks a shift from prior Monmouth polls where the Democrat held a 5-point lead (48 percent to 43 percent in September and 47 percent to 42 percent in August). A range of probabilistic likely electorate models shows a potential outcome – if the election was held today – of anywhere from a 3-point lead for McAuliffe (48 percent to 45 percent) to a 3-point lead for Youngkin (48 percent to 45 percent).
This is the first time the Republican has held a lead in Monmouth polls this cycle. All prior models gave the Democrat a lead (ranging from 2 to 7 points). A traditional “cut-off” model similar to what Monmouth used in elections prior to the 2018 midterm – which includes registered voters who cast a ballot in at least two of the last four general elections and report being “certain” or “likely” to vote, or have already voted – shows a close contest with 48 percent for McAuliffe and 46 percent for Youngkin.
The biggest swing in support from Monmouth’s last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48 percent to 39 percent lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37 percent to 46 percent deficit in September. Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe’s advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47 percent to 43 percent), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52 percent to 38 percent).
Youngkin has increased his support in the reddest part of the commonwealth, western Virginia, where he currently leads McAuliffe by 66 percent to 27 percent (up from 58 percent to 34 percent in September). At the same time, McAuliffe has slipped slightly in heavily-blue Northern Virginia. He leads there by 58 percent to 34 percent. This is down only slightly from his 58 percent to 29 percent lead last month, however, incumbent Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam won this key region by 35 points (67 percent to 32 percent) in 2017. McAuliffe holds small leads in both the eastern Tidewater (48 percent to 42 percent) and central I-95/Richmond (48 percent to 41 percent) areas.
“Suburban women, especially in Northern Virginia, have been crucial to the sizable victories Democrats have enjoyed in the commonwealth since 2017. However, their support is not registering at the same level this time around. This is due partly to a shift in key issues important to these voters and partly to dampened enthusiasm among the party faithful,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Voter engagement metrics among all registered voters have been fairly stable over the past three months – 74 percent are very motivated and 34 percent are more enthusiastic about this election than usual. But the overall stability masks a widening partisan gap. In August, similar numbers of Republicans (75 percent and Democrats (76 percent) said they were very motivated to vote this year. That grew to a 5-point GOP advantage in September (85 percent to 80 percent) and has crept to a 7-point advantage in the current poll (79 percent to 72 percent).
Voter enthusiasm shows an even wider disparity. This metric stood at a 13-point Republican advantage in prior polls – 34 percent GOP to 21 percent Democrat in August and 44 percent to 31 percent in September. That disparity has grown to a 23-point chasm in the current poll – 49 percent GOP to 26 percent Democrat.
Looking at the national picture, President Joe Biden gets a negative 43% approve and 52% disapprove rating from Virginia voters, which is down from his 46% to 49% rating in August. Northam gets a 46% approve and 42% disapprove rating for his performance as governor, which is comparable to his 48% to 42% rating in August.
“Motivation tends to be a better indication of turnout than self-reported enthusiasm. The gridlock in Washington certainly plays a role in dampening Democrats’ mood, but there are some stumbles on the part of the McAuliffe campaign that have also had an impact. Either way, this voter engagement gap is good news for Youngkin,” said Murray.
The Monmouth poll finds that a recent shift in voter issue priorities has helped Youngkin. The top issues chosen as the most important first or second factor in Virginians’ vote for governor are jobs and the economy (45%, up from 39% in September) and education and schools (41%, up from 31%). Just 23% name the Covid pandemic as one of their top two issues, which is a drop from 32% last month.
Youngkin has drawn even with McAuliffe on being trusted more to handle education and schools (39% to 38%). He trailed the Democrat on this issue in September (33% to 37%) and August (31% to 36%). The Republican now holds a small trust advantage on jobs and the economy – 39% to 34% who trust McAuliffe more. The Virginia electorate was more evenly split on this issue in prior polls (36% Youngkin to 35% McAuliffe in September and 35% to 33% in August). Youngkin has also widened his advantage on handling taxes (40% to 30%) and has drawn even with McAuliffe on handling the abortion issue (33% Youngkin to 35% McAuliffe).
At the same time, McAuliffe’s sizable advantage on handling the pandemic has shrunk. He now holds a 37% to 31% edge over Youngkin on being trusted more to handle Covid policies. This issue was a bigger winner for him in prior polls (41% to 28% in September and 38% to 26% in August).
“McAuliffe’s sizable edge on handling Covid and his competitiveness on economic issues last month helped put him ahead in this race, but Youngkin has been able to change the terms of the debate, by using his opponent’s words on parental involvement in the school curriculum to shift voter attention on that issue. Not only has this eaten away at the Democrat’s previous advantage on education policy, but it has also raised doubts about McAuliffe’s ability to handle the pandemic,” said Murray.
Youngkin currently earns a better personal rating – 41 percent favorable to 29 percent unfavorable – than McAuliffe does – 39 percent favorable to 39 percent unfavorable. The Republican’s numbers are similar to his rating last month (40 percent to 31 percent), while the Democrat’s numbers have worsened since September (40 percent to 33 percent).
“To counter his own growing negatives, McAuliffe launched a series of ads painting Youngkin as an extremist while this poll was in the field. It’s not clear whether this blitz will move the needle, but the Democrat needs it to do just that if he wants to return to Richmond,” said Murray.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from Oct. 16 to 19, with 1,005 Virginia registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error 3.1 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, N.J.
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