Health officials are concerned that if the current rate of COVID-19 transmission continues, the virus will replicate into a strain that is even more contagious or immune to vaccines.
In her weekly press briefing Tuesday morning, Dr. Cynthia Moroow, the medical director for Virginia’s Roanoke City and Alleghany Health Districts, said 808 new cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed in the districts since Aug. 31.
She said she expects that number is low due to the Labor Day weekend.
“I do believe that some of these numbers are actually a little bit lower than what we believe is happening. Because of the holiday weekend, some people may be late getting tested,” Morrow said.
Health officials are blaming the Delta strain of the virus for the latest rise in cases. The Delta strain, which is more easily transmissible, is impacting young adults and children in higher numbers.
“We know that it is disproportionately impacting children… in a way that we didn’t see in the spring,” Morrow said.
She said that’s because no vaccine is currently available for children under 12, and the Delta strain seems to be acting differently than previous strains of the virus. On Monday, COVID hospitalizations in the health districts included two children under the age of 10.
“They are more vulnerable because they haven’t had the chance to get vaccinated,” she said.
And, there also seems to be confusion among parents over the aspects of isolating or quarantining their children if they have been exposed or tested positive for the virus.
“That doesn’t just mean they need to stay home from school. That means they need to stay home,” Morrow said.
Health department investigations have revealed that COVID is being spread among children outside of school settings, particularly at sporting events and at social events such as birthday parties.
Morrow says that when a child is isolated, they must be confined to their room to the highest extend possible and avoid contact with other family members.
A person is advised to quarantine when they may have been exposed to the virus. Isolation is advised when a person has been infected with the virus, even when they don’t have symptoms.
“There is just so much disease activity, we just need for people to do what they can,” she said.
She again stressed the need for people to get vaccinated and for parents to make sure that adults who come into contact with their children are fully vaccinated. Other preventive measures, which have been stressed for more than a year, are the wearing of face coverings, frequent hand washing, social distancing, and avoiding crowded situations.
Viral replication is Morrow’s greatest fear, based on current trends of the pandemic.
“The more we allow this virus to continue replicating, at the rate it is replicating, the more we are inviting it to become the next strain, the next variant, that may be even more dangerous, or vaccine-resistant,” she said.
Health experts said the Delta variant is proof of how the virus rapidly mutates to survive. The Delta variant has changed the course of the COVID-19 pandemic by evolving to become more transmissible than previous versions of the virus.
Compared to the Alpha variant, which is estimated to be 50% more transmissible than the original virus strain identified in Wuhan, China, scientists believe the Delta variant, now dominant worldwide, is 40% to 60% more transmissible than Alpha.
Although vaccines are holding up well against the variants in terms of protecting against hospitalization and death, the Delta variant is more likely to infect fully vaccinated people — so-called breakthrough cases — than past variants.
But Morrow says an unvaccinated person is 13.2 times more likely to contract COVID than a person who is fully vaccinated.
“I think that really gives you the scope of the level of protection,” she said.
Vaccine rates are continuing to slowly rise in communities throughout the Roanoke City and Alleghany Health Districts. In recent weeks, health officials have been administering approximately 3,000 doses per week.
To date, the Roanoke City and Alleghany Health Districts have administered almost 281,000 doses of vaccine. In Alleghany County, 62.3% of adults have received at least one dose of vaccine. In Covington, the rate is 58.9%.
In Virginia, 78.9% of the adult population has received at least one dose, translating into 63.9% of the total population.
In the Roanoke City and Alleghany Health Districts, 64 people were hospitalized on Monday, with 50 being new hospitalizations. In addition, 48 people from outside the two health districts had been admitted to hospitals in the region.
The COVID death toll in the Roanoke City and Alleghany Health Districts stood at 521 on Tuesday.
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